Mortgage rates rarely move in lockstep with the Federal Reserve. They track a different benchmark, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which reflects investor expectations for growth and inflation over the life of a 30-year loan.
Markets often price in a Fed decision weeks before the meeting.
Every time the Fed meets, headlines suggest mortgage rates will follow whatever it decides. They usually don't. The federal funds rate is a short-term bank lending rate that directly shapes credit cards, HELOCs and auto loans.
Watching the Fed calendar is a reasonable habit, but it's an incomplete signal.
Borrowers who follow Treasury yields and inflation trends alongside Fed meetings get a far clearer read on where mortgage rates are headed, and can time a rate lock with more confidence than the headlines alone provide.
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A loan officer can walk you through where Treasury yields and inflation data stand before you decide when to lock. Pre-qualifying will not affect your credit score.
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